In the first quarter of 2023, Italy has experienced little economic growth relative to the previous quarter, due a slight increase in private consumption, investments and government spending, counteracted by a drop in exports. Overall, GDP is 1.9% above its level in the same quarter of 2022. During the last year, the strong economic rebound after the pandemic, rising energy prices, and uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised the inflation rate, now still at 8.9% relative to the previous year. Unemployment is stable at 8%. The OECD economic outlook expects annual inflation to gradually decline throughout 2023, reaching 5% towards the end of the year, and to decrease to 3% in 2024. Despite the current tightening of the monetary policy by the ECB to slow down inflation, Italian GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 4% until the end of 2024. Unemployment is expected to increase to 8.25% in the second half of 2023, and to decrease again to 8% in 2024.

July 2023