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SWITZERLAND: Exports recovery and reduction of the pressure on the Swiss franc

The GDP expanded by 0.3% q/q in the 1st quarter. The strong rise of the KOF-business index since the beginning of the year anticipates a GDPgrowth of 0.8% q/q in the 2nd quarter. The exports sector (+4.4% y/y) took advantage of the solid demand from the eurozone, especially the
chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, the industries of metals and machines. During the first months of this year, the business confidence reached the level of 2011 when the economy recovered from the financial crisis. However, businesses in the industry suffer from margin reductions. The sector is resisting, but according to the “Swiss Manufacturing Survey” of the University of St.Gallen, the local production costs would exceed on average by 37% those abroad. The pressure towards production relocation abroad remains particularly high.Even though
the economic recovery contributes to a slight decrease the unemployment rate (forecast ’17: 3.2%), the inflation rise limits the households’ real income growth. After many years of deflation, the consumption prices clearly increased at the beginning of the year (May ’17: +0.5%),
mainly supported by the oil price rise.In the next months, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could leave the short-term interest rates constant (Libor 3-Month CHF -0.74%). The result of the French elections decreased the pressure towards appreciation of the Swiss Franc and the SNB
could slightly reduce its interventions on the currency markets. An improvement of the economic cycle in the euro area and a less expansive monetary policy of the ECB could trigger a new appreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc (July ’17: 1.14 CHF/EUR).

September 2017

ECSA Chemicals AG
Burgauerstrasse 17
CH-9230 Flawil (Switzerland)
T: +41 71 394 02 30
F: +41 71 394 02 31

Via Luigi Favre 16
CH-6828 Balerna (Switzerland) 
T: +41 91 695 88 00
F: +41 91 695 88 01

ECSA Maintenance AG
Burgauerstrasse 17 
CH-9230 Flawil (Switzerland)
T: +41 71 394 02 30 
F: +41 71 394 02 31

Via Luigi Favre 16 
CH-6828 Balerna (Switzerland) 
T: +41 91 695 88 00
F: +41 91 695 88 02

ECSA Energy SA
Via Luigi Favre 16 
CH-6828 Balerna (Switzerland)
T: +41 91 695 88 00
F: +41 91 695 88 05

ECSA ITALIA Srl Società
con Unico Socio
Via Lavoratori Autobianchi 1 
I-20832 Desio (MB)
T: +39 0362 625 421
F: +39 0362 304 361
P.IVA IT00222470130

Porta Ticino Easy Stop SA
Via San Giorgio 37
CH-6877 Coldrerio
T: +41 91 640 35 50 
F: +41 91 640 35 51

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