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USA – Donald Trump announces changes in the economic policy

The new republican government could introduce trade protectionism and a very expansionary fiscal policy as a result of a compromise between the extreme position of president Trump and that of the Republicans Congress members. 

The GDP recorded in 2016 the lowest growth (+1,6%) since 2011 but the economy recovered by the end of the year. The GDP should grow by 2.3% in 2017 thanks to a solid consumption (forecast: +2.6%). 

The private households are supported by a situation of almost full employment and by an increase of real wages and net assets. Their financial situation seems relatively sound. The unemployment rate could decrease to 4,4% by summer.

A new worsening of the trade balance is expected in 2017 because of the dollar appreciation (Dec. ’16: 1,04 €/$) and of the weak economic growth abroad. 

Full employment and expansionary fiscal policy could foster the inflation expectations (’17: 2.3%) and consequently the long-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve will continue the gradual normalisation of short-term interest (Fed-Funds: 0.75%), which should increase to 1.25% by the end of 2017.

March 2017

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