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WORLD: Nearly Synchronised Economic Growth and Moderate Inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) foresees a global growth of 3.9% in 2018. For the first time since 2010, all main economies are showing simultaneous growth expectations despite of the recent warning signs of slowdown in the Chinese industry. Within the next years the recovery cycle should record sustained investments and productivity growth. The introduction of imports tax on steel and aluminium through the government of the United-States (USA) increases the risk of a trade war.

In Western countries, debts remain high but sustainable thanks to low real interest rates. An acceleration of the economic growth in the USA, in Germany, in France and in Northern Europe could trigger inflation beyond the expectations and a global rise of interest rates. The central banks of USA and Europe are trying to limit their ultra-loose monetary policy.

In the OECD-countries, the core inflation (energy and food excluded) amounted to 2.2% in January 2018. Whereas the OPEC and the group of countries led by Russia postponed until the end of 2018 the production cuts decided one year ago, the oil price increase since June 2017 caused the extraction in the USA to rise to 10.3 Mio barrels per day. The solid conjuncture should maintain the oil demand at the high levels of last year, when the global oil stock decreased of about 8%. Geopolitical risks set aside, oil price could also rise from the present 65 $ to 75 $/barrel (Brent quality) within the third quarter 2018.

April 2018

ECSA Chemicals AG
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ECSA Maintenance AG
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CH-9230 Flawil (Switzerland)

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ECSA Energy SA
Via Luigi Favre 16 
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