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World – Political uncertainty adds to economic recovery and moderate price increase

Since last autumn, the economic indicators have been pointing to clearer recovery. The world economic product could report the highest growth rate (3.5%) since 2011 (’16: 3%). 

In industrialized countries, the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) resists above all thanks to private consumption. 

Two political events shook the traditional industrial countries: Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States (USA). The international relations could deeply change in the years to come.

The inflation rate is expected to increase in 2017. The monetary policy of central banks should remain globally expansionary and become gradually tight. A possible monetary contraction in the USA could destabilize the financial situation in the emerging countries. 

The recovery of the row matter prices relieved the deflation pressure and fostered the economic trend of Russia and Brazil (BRICS countries). 

After having almost doubled, reaching 55 $/barrel in the last twelve months, the oil price is expected to reach 60$ by the end of 2017. The OPEC countries signed an agreement for the first semester 2017 on a decrease of the global extraction rate of 1.2 million barrels per day.

March 2017

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